Energy Expert Nick Agule has said that structural flaws in the 2013 privatisation of the power sector, particularly the failure to privatise transmission and the awarding of distribution licences to undercapitalised entities, have left Nigeria’s electricity supply “dead on arrival.”
In an interview with ARISE News on Tuesday, Agule firmly dismissed Nigeria’s celebrated 5,000 megawatts of power generation as utterly insignificant, arguing that only a structural overhaul of these critical areas, rather than increased tariffs, can genuinely pull the country from its energy conundrum.
Agule declared that while the country may have crossed the 5,000 megawatt (MW) threshold, there is little cause for celebration.
“To the extent that Nigeria needs power—needs power so badly—it’s good news that there is an incremental increase in megawatts,” he said. “But should we celebrate? The answer is probably not because, like you already said, Nigeria is energy poor.”
Citing global benchmarks, Agule drew stark comparisons: “South Africa, with 65 million people, generates about 55,000 megawatts. Brazil, with a population similar to Nigeria’s 200 million, generates 150,000 megawatts. Qatar, a gas-rich nation like Nigeria, supplies 8,000 megawatts to just 3 million people. This illustrates our deep energy poverty.”
Agule traced the sector’s underperformance to what he described as a fatally flawed privatisation process initiated in 2013 under former President Goodluck Jonathan. According to him, the decision to privatise only the generation and distribution arms of the electricity value chain—while leaving transmission under government control—undermined the entire effort.
“In the power sector, you have generation, transmission, and distribution. The Jonathan administration privatised generation and distribution, but transmission was neglected,” he said. “They even handed it briefly to a Canadian firm, Manitoba, before taking it back. That decision made the whole privatisation dead on arrival.”
Using an agricultural analogy, he explained: “It’s like privatising farms and markets but doing nothing about the vehicles needed to transport food. The system collapses because the chain is incomplete.”
Agule also raised alarm about the lack of financial and technical capacity among the companies awarded distribution licences.
“I have Corporate Affairs Commission documents of all 11 distribution companies. Some of them have a share capital of just 5 million or 10 million naira—that’s around $6,000. How do you expect such companies to power four states?” he asked.
He further revealed: “The combined share capital of all 11 distribution companies is less than 1 billion naira, or roughly $500,000. That’s totally inadequate.”
On the issue of legacy debts—particularly the government’s N1 trillion in subsidy obligations—Agule dismissed the idea that higher tariffs alone could resolve the crisis.
“Tariffs are not going to give us 24/7 electricity,” he asserted. “We have 46 companies in the power sector today, compared to one NEPA in 2013. Yet power supply has dropped from 6,000–7,000 megawatts to just 5,000. All these new companies, and power has worsened.”
Instead, Agule advocated for urgent investment in the transmission network and a reassessment of the current distribution arrangements.
“My advice to President Tinubu is this: fix transmission first. Only then can distribution companies increase their capacity. And if these distribution companies can’t deliver, revoke their licences. They have broken their promises.”
Agule compared the power sector’s woes to Nigeria’s successful telecoms reform. He noted that unlike the power sector, telecom licences were given to operators with the capacity to invest heavily and deliver results.
“NITEL had half a million phone lines. After privatisation, telecom firms invested over $100 billion, and now we have over 220 million active lines. That’s real reform,” he said.
“The problem is not the tariff. It’s the output. If capable companies like Siemens came in and increased Nigeria’s supply to 10,000 or even 50,000 megawatts, investment would pour in—even at lower tariffs.”
Agule concluded with a challenge to government authorities: act now or risk deeper developmental stagnation.
“Electricity is fundamental. Without it, industrialisation is dead on arrival. We must fix transmission, enforce accountability in distribution, and attract real investment. Otherwise, we’ll keep celebrating mediocrity while our economy suffers.”
Boluwatife Enome
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