Managing director of Financial Derivatives Company, Bismarck Rewane, has raised serious doubts about the reliability of Nigeria’s most recent consumer price index (CPI) figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The bureau reported a slight decline in the headline inflation rate to 23.71 percent in April 2025, down from 24.23 percent in March.
However, Rewane challenged the data’s accuracy, pointing to significant discrepancies between inflation rates in food-producing states versus major consuming states.
“The NBS results show that some food-producing states are experiencing very high inflation rates, while major consuming states have significantly lower rates,” he said.
He highlighted that inflation was highest in Benue state at 51 percent, Ekiti at 34 percent, and Kebbi at 33 percent — all key food-producing states.
In contrast, “inflation was lowest in consuming states such as Ebonyi with 7.19 percent, Adamawa at 9.52 percent, and Ogun at 9.91 percent.”
Rewane questioned the logic behind this disparity, asking: “How come the states that are producing the food, and the food is stranded there at higher prices, while the states that are consuming the foodstuff are having low rates? What is happening here? Are those numbers credible? And if they are not, then what are we seeing here? Are we seeing some distortion in the methodology? Are we seeing a JAMB-type situation here?”
He added, “It is almost inconceivable that where you have the food, the prices are high, and where you are consuming the food, the prices are low. The difference between Benue state and Ogun state, for example, is almost 43 percent difference in inflation. What has happened?”
Rewane also expressed skepticism over recent declines in food prices, noting volatility in staple commodities such as rice.
“Food prices come down, yes, we have seen some movement in some food prices, but are they sustainable? We’ve seen the price of rice and it’s gone all over the place,” he said.
“Rice dropped, one, because of imports. Two, because of the rumour that there’s poison rice, so people are not buying the rice. But we have not seen a massive shift to the substitutes for rice yet, so that is something that needs to be looked at.”
He further pointed out the mixed trends within the food basket: “When you look at the food basket, you find that the price of tomatoes went up by 107 percent because of tomato ebola, while the price of dairy actually stayed a little bit stable.”
Rewane emphasised the complexity of inflation’s causes: “When you look at inflation, you have to begin to look at what causes inflation to decline. Is it a weak exchange rate that leads to inflation, or is it inflation that leads to a weak exchange rate?”
On government interventions, Rewane criticised efforts to stabilise food prices through direct production or sales by the government.
“It’s not the government producing food or government selling food, that’s the wrong way to go about it,” he said.
“The markets determine exactly what the efficient price of a commodity is, there’s an equilibrium price.”
He explained the role of market forces: “The man who is selling rice imports the rice and sells it in the market. The market, the consumer, based on his salary and his demand, will buy the rice. I don’t think we should be seeing the interventions that are going to bring down prices.”
Rewane described inflation as driven by two key factors, he said, “One is the fact that there’s production shortfall because of insecurity, because of herders and all sorts of things, and the cost of logistics, petrol, diesel, and all the other things. Then there’s a demand side where people have excess liquidity and they are buying more.”
He acknowledged the role of monetary policy saying “The central bank controls demand by tightening liquidity through interest rates, but monetary policy alone cannot boost output and production.”
For sustainable inflation control, Rewane stressed the need for structural improvement, he said “Output and production can only increase through improved power supply, efficient logistics, reduced business costs, and higher farm yields — ultimately determining the equilibrium price.”
Boluwatife Enome
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